We have less influence over outcomes than we think
Humans are master rationalizers. We want to believe that when things go well, it’s because of our skill and intelligence. But when things go badly, we blame bad timing, bad luck, or external factors.
We do this to protect our internal narrative—that we are in control. But what if we’ve been focusing on the wrong thing all along?
What if our value isn’t in the outcome but in the process that leads to it?
It’s 2000. The dot-com bubble is growing, but the economy is shaky.
Blockbuster is king—thousands of stores, billions in revenue, millions of Friday night customers.
Then comes this offer: Buy Netflix for $50 million.
Across the table, executives sit in a boardroom, likely shaking their heads. What they see isn’t a $200 billion streaming empire. They see a struggling DVD mail-order company with questionable profitability—a niche idea.
Their process tells them that this isn’t worth it.
Seven years later, Netflix launches streaming. iPhones arrive. Broadband explodes.
Blockbuster? It’s too late. But here’s the real question: Was their decision bad, or was their luck bad?
In 2000, Netflix wasn’t a sure thing. Streaming was seven years away from being born, internet speeds were slow (think AOL dial-up—yes, you hear that sound), and the dot-com crash was about to implode tech companies left and right.
With their information at that moment, they may have made the right decision based on probability—but they got the wrong outcome.
And today, we judge them by the outcome alone.
Luck and randomness aren’t just small factors in life—they are woven into every outcome.
A person walks into a bar, meets someone who happens to be a billionaire, and lands a life-changing opportunity. A poker player holds the best hand and plays the strategy perfectly, only to lose because the final card didn’t go their way. A farmer studies the soil and plants at the perfect time and follows every best practice—but without the right mix of rain and sun, nothing grows.
These moments don’t negate skill, and they don’t mean preparation doesn’t matter. But they do mean that success is never fully within our control.
The hard part is that we rarely see this in real-time. We look at someone who succeeded and assume they had the right formula, one we can follow step by step. But what we can’t replicate is the randomness that helped them along the way—the right introduction, the unexpected market shift, the moment that happened at just the right time.
A sailor might be the best navigator in the world, but without the right wind, they stay in the same place. We love patterns. We want to believe that if we do things a certain way, we can guarantee a certain result.
It’s why gamblers look for hot streaks, believing that ten reds in a row on the roulette wheel mean black is due. It’s why we copy successful people, hoping to recreate their outcomes, without realizing how much luck played a role in their success.
But science doesn’t work that way. Scientists don’t judge an experiment by a single result—they refine hypotheses over time. The best investors don’t build portfolios around one stock—they design processes that give them a higher probability of success over decades.
So why do we judge ourselves by individual outcomes instead of the repeatability and evolution of our process?
It’s easier to look at success as a single event. It’s harder to accept that the best path forward isn’t about one big moment but about consistency, adaptability, and probability over time. Wealth management is no different.
A bull market can make anyone look like a genius. A single great investment can create the illusion of superior skill. But real success in wealth management isn’t about one good year—it’s about a repeatable process that works in good markets and bad.
As we continue to impact more families, we must challenge our assumptions. Are we succeeding because of a reliable, repeatable process or because external forces have worked in our favor? If those forces shift, will we still be successful? Most importantly, what adjustments should we make today to ensure we control what we can?
Success one time doesn’t make you a success.
Consistency and adaptability do.